Discrete-Event Simulation Modeling

A discrete-event simulation (DES) model is a type of queuing model that is widely used to analyze phenomena in demography, logistics, transportation, and operations research. Entities enter a system, compete with other entities for resources, and after a waiting period, exit the system. DES models assume that entities in the model experience the system in a series of discrete “career” stages, and movement from one stage to the next is based on transition probabilities. System models become quite complicated rather quickly, requiring computer simulation in order to produce useful output.

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The Department of State Hospitals

The Department of State Hospitals (DSH) manages the California state hospital system, which provides mental health services to patients admitted into DSH facilities. The department strives to provide effective treatment in a safe environment and in a fiscally responsible manner.

In an effort to help the department achieve their goals, ISML is working with DSH to develop and provide an effective organizational management tool that allows for the accurate prediction/estimation of hospital bed capacities based on patient length of stay times.

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Los Angeles County

In 2014 we were contacted by the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department (LASD) Custody Division, and asked to build a DES model that could project their jail population three years into the future. In April, 2015 we reported preliminary projections based on a March 1, 2015 starting date. From there, we worked with LASD to build a more sophisticated model and were able to update it in time in order to make better predictions based on an October 1, 2015 starting date. Not only did our projections improve with the availability of more information on how Proposition 47 affected the jail system, but they were also improved by knowledge we gained from LASD officials.

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