Question
Rep. Mimi Walters (R-Irvine) is co-sponsoring HR637, the “Stopping EPA Overreach Act of 2017”. This bill would repeal regulation of greenhouse gases in the United States. How will it affect constituents in her district, the California 45th?
Answer
I predict that 40 to 80 people will die prematurely each year in the California 45th if climate change continues unchecked. This is because climate change in Orange County will lead to more frequent, extreme heat waves. The elderly, children, and outdoor workers are especially vulnerable.
Why?
The U.S. is the second-highest producer of greenhouse gases in the world. In the international treaty known as the Paris Agreement, the U.S. committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28% by 2025. This would slow climate change. EPA regulations of greenhouse gases are the main way that the U.S. plans to meet this goal. Thus, HR637 would block an important mechanism for slowing climate change. In addition, it would likely cause ‘collateral damage‘ to the Paris Agreement, by weakening the effectiveness of the other countries’ efforts.
The details
My estimate of premature deaths in the California 45th is based on a 4 °C increase in average temperatures by the end of this century. This is the prediction for our region if greenhouse gas emissions decline moderately. If the U.S. meets its commitment in the Paris Agreement, greenhouse gas emissions will decline more. Under this “stringent mitigation” scenario, Southern California will warm about 1 °C. (You can explore these predictions in Google Earth.)
A 4 °C rise in average temperatures in Southern California will result in 50 to 100 more deaths per million residents compared to death rates with no climate change. By comparison, with 1 °C warming in average temperatures, death rates would stay about the same as with no climate change.
There are about 770,000 residents in the California 45th. Thus, 50 to 100 additional deaths per million people each year amounts to 40 to 80 deaths in this district.
Background on climate change
Humans are causing climate change. It is happening right now. By burning gasoline, clearing tropical forests, creating land fills, and performing other activities, humans cause the release of greenhouse gases. These greenhouse gases trap more heat in the atmosphere. The best way to slow climate change is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. More than 97% of climate change scientists agree on these facts.